1. Startup companies focussed on smart content and technology integration will grow faster and display mind-blowing results. They will look at grownups and say “well of course we’re geeks, writers and designers all working together from the beginning, why on earth would you do it any other way?”
2. Big content companies will continue to campaign against “online piracy” but as their pain increases and even their most somnambulant shareholders start to wake up and notice the approaching precipice, they will experiment more with licensing in more open ways and collaborate with new, more savvy start-ups.
3. Our heads will come out of the cloud and our we’ll plant our feet more firmly on the ground. What we once referred to in shock and awe as “the cloud” will become a much more sophisticated set of services – some of which will offer ubiquity like the Apple iCloud for consumers but others of which will offer much more robust, secure and limited commercial solutions.
4. Search, discovery and recommendation of content of all kinds will grow. We will need meta-discovery engines to filter the range of discovery offerings. Combinations of algorithmic and human selection remain the key. Tastemakers will rule!
5. Talking to yourself is one of the first signs of madness. Voice, movement and facial recognition systems will drive entertainment devices and in car solutions. But people will neither walk down the street talking to Siri nor talk to her on public transport.
6. The influence of TV as a platform will only be slowed by TV executives’ unwillingness to embrace technology. Internet connected TVs, set-top box solutions and simplifed home remote control systems will improve. Apple and Google with various new consumer electronics partners will try to do battle for the living room with continued varying results.
7. Security, privacy, hacking and scandals will reach new heights with more of us being exposed to greater invasions of personal privacy than ever. Anonymous will publish some massive quantity of personal private information online which we will all scour for great prurient interest before declaring it scandalous and to be condemned!
8. Closed proprietary solutions vs big open platforms will be the Apple v Google macro-battle writ large across every area of tech innovation… Sony, Nokia and Microsoft will be the big losers of old school proprietary solutions…
9. DIY musicians, artists, writers, film-makers, animators, games creators will be doing it more and more for themselves. The big global superstars of the studio system will look more and more rarified, less and less in touch with the real world. Our cultural snobbishness about self-publishing will diminish, but we will need more and more help to find the good stuff (see 4 above).
10. A small, inexpensive, lo-tech gadget that takes us all back to the very childish basics of human pleasure, fun and obsessive addictive behaviour will sweep the world and will help a little to relieve us all from the tedium and anxiety of economic and social uncertainty.